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Demographic challenges today - demand on care and healthcare

AGING WORLD AND EUROPE

European Union the world fastest aging region face complex challenges do the profound demographic transformation.

Demographers and economists foresee long -term economical and social crisis in Europe created by the processes of aging societies which will come from a double whammy:

– increasing demand by increased number of seniors on the welfare state and health-care systems (LEARN MORE);

– decline in tax contributions by shrinking work force (LEARN MORE).

Projected population change in European countries, 2015-2100
  • <-50
  • -50 to -25
  • -25 to -10
  • -10 to 0
  • 0 to 10
  • 10 to 25
  • 25 to 50
  • >50
  • Outside coverage
Median age, years
  • 45+
  • 40-45
  • 35-40
  • 30-35
  • 25-30
  • 20-25
  • 14-20

CEE countries with rapid ageing populations see fiscal effects more pronounced than growth effects; health and social security costs rise as, with falling economic growth, tax revenue declines.

The combined effect of politics and demographics will affect the outcome of long-term investment decisions. Eastern EU states will need to spend more on health including preventative care to bring down high death rates.

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COSTS OF AGING WORLD

What are the costs of an ageing society?

In 2011 in the EU-28, social protection expenditure devoted to old age amounted to 0.5% of GDP, or €2,585 per inhabitant. These costs depend not only on the number of older people in society, but also on the level of benefits governments choose to provide. Thus they are highly variable across different EU countries and their future costs are hard to predict. For example, social protection expenditure on old age currently ranges from over €5,000 per capita in Denmark to less than €500 in Bulgaria.

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Today, 80% of people over age 65 have at least one chronic disease. 50% have two or more chronic conditions.

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One in six people in the EU have a mild to severe disability.

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Chronic disease accounts for 77% of total disease in Europe.

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10% of the population has to leave jobs due to health problems.

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37% the expected percentage of the European population aged 60 and older by 2050, a rise of 17% from 2000.

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84,6 - the average life expectancy for a European man in 2060, up from 76,7 in 2008. 89,1 - the average life expectancy for a European woman in 2060, up from 82,5 in 2008.

The European Commission projects that public spending on long term care as a proportion of GDP will rise from 1.8% in 2010 to 3.6% by 2060. This is an increase of 94% in the coming 50 years.

However a large proportion of this rise in spending is not predicted to occur until after 2030.

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PAYING BILLS IN AGING SOCIETY

Who will pay bills on ageing society?

The family members and relatives in CEE countries will be forced to whistand the cunamy of aging societies and cover biggest part of expenses for long-term care in greying society on “out of pocket” base.

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Who are Europes caregivers? How often do they give care?

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In 2010 15% of people over age 50 reported being caregivers. This reaches a high of 20% in Belgium and hits a low of 11% in Italy.

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60% of all caregivers in Europe are women. 71% of Hungarian caregivers are women. 54% of Danish caregivers are women.

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66% provide care on a daily basis. 34% provide care on a weekly basis.

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An ageing population combined with increased rates of chronic disease and smaller families will result in a heavy caregiving burden for working age adults in the next 50 years, as they struggle to balance work and caregiving responsibilities. 2010: 67% of the population was of working age. 2050: 58% of the population will be of working age.

Informal caregivers unpaid work undertaken make contribution to the European economy between 20.1 and 36.8% of European GDP. Building innovative programs and initiatives to support informal caregivers will be crucial to the stability of European healthcare systems, the economy, and well-being for citizens.

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